Finding Solutions to Global Warming in the Polar Regions

The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has warned that by 2100, the frequency of wildfires worldwide will increase by 50%. Earlier this year, a massive wildfire in the western United States raged on for more than three weeks, leaving an area nearly one-third the size of Seoul in ashes. Analysts concluded that long-term drought caused by global warming combined with sudden strong winds fueled the flames.

In the summer of 2019, large-scale wildfires even broke out in the Arctic Circle. Images of the Arctic sky blanketed in black ash shocked the world. Satellite observations captured smoke from wildfires in Siberia, Russia spreading into the Arctic, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported that 53 megatons of carbon dioxide were released due to those Arctic wildfires.

In September 2024, the IBS Center for Climate Physics uncovered the cause of large wildfires in the Arctic. The main culprit was the permafrost—ground that remains frozen year-round—rapidly thawing due to global warming. As permafrost melts, moisture that had been retained in the upper soil layers drains downward, leaving the soil and atmosphere drier. The problem is that if global greenhouse gas emissions continue, as much as 50% of permafrost regions could experience rapid thawing.

KIM In-Won, Research Fellow at the Center for Climate Physics who led the study, emphasized: “Arctic wildfires will, in the long term, impact polar vegetation and animal ecosystems. This is the time when diverse efforts are needed to slow global warming.” We spoke with Dr. Kim about her research, her career path, and her future goals.

Q. Please introduce yourself.

Hello. My name is KIM In-Won, and I am a Research Fellow at the IBS Center for Climate Physics located in Busan. I study how climate change affects terrestrial ecosystems, particularly vegetation and wildfires.

During graduate school, I focused on predicting summer rainfall in Asia under climate change. After graduating, I wanted to explore the various phenomena that arise from changes in rainfall, and I was fortunate to have the opportunity at IBS to study the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Recently, the issue of large wildfires in the Arctic has emerged, and I became deeply interested in how global warming affects Arctic wildfires, which led me to study the topic in depth.

Q. What kind of organization is the IBS Center for Climate Physics?

Established in 2017, the Center for Climate Physics conducts fundamental research to understand both natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change caused by human activity. We aim to understand past, present, and future climate change. For example, by exploring caves and analyzing speleothems, we can reconstruct past climates. Using supercomputers, we can predict climate systems involving the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice sheets. We also analyze and forecast phenomena brought on by climate change, such as human migrations, shifts in animals, vegetation, and marine life, and outbreaks of infectious diseases.

Q. Recently, research circles have been paying close attention to permafrost. Why is that?

Permafrost refers to ground in high-latitude regions that remains frozen for more than two consecutive years. Vast amounts of organic carbon are stored there. When permafrost thaws due to global warming, the carbon trapped in the soil is decomposed by microorganisms and released into the atmosphere as greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These greenhouse gases can further accelerate global warming.

Q. How does the thawing of permafrost affect other continents?

As permafrost melts and accelerates global warming, extreme climate phenomena such as heatwaves, droughts, and changes in rainfall are expected to increase even in regions outside the polar areas. Recent climate modeling studies have shown that permafrost thawing altered the flow of water, and these changes interacted with the global climate system, ultimately affecting rainfall in the tropics.

Q. Last year you published research showing that faster permafrost thaw is leading to more frequent wildfires in the Arctic. What changes might occur if wildfires happen often in polar regions?

If permafrost melts and large wildfires become more frequent in polar regions, several changes could occur. Aerosols released by wildfires can not only block some of the Sun’s radiation but also affect cloud formation processes and atmospheric chemical reactions. Large-scale wildfires can also impact vegetation and animal habitats in the region. Ultimately, frequent wildfires in the polar regions are likely to bring about long-term changes to the polar ecosystems.

Q. Are there practical measures to slow these changes?

Slowing global warming requires a variety of efforts. There are ways to develop technologies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and capture carbon dioxide. Efforts are also needed to conserve forests, which absorb carbon dioxide. International cooperation for carbon reduction between countries is equally important.

Q. What research field are you focusing on recently?

I am challenging myself with new research unlike what I have done before. I want to understand how Earth’s vegetation has changed over the past two million years due to climate change.

To do this, I am developing a new vegetation model that reflects the movement of seeds. In the face of rapid climate change, simply considering climate information alone makes it difficult to understand the processes by which plant species survive or go extinct. Understanding how seeds disperse can be a critical factor. However, widely used vegetation models currently do not adequately incorporate seed dispersal. I expect that modeling that accounts for seed dispersal could produce very different results from what we have seen so far.

Q. What do you hope to do in the future.

As a postdoctoral researcher, I joined the IBS Center for Climate Physics and have conducted a variety of studies on climate change. Going forward, I would like to expand my research on vegetation, wildfires, permafrost, and terrestrial carbon cycle changes caused by climate change. If given the opportunity, I would also like to lead a research team based on the work I have done so far. This would allow me to take on more challenging projects and produce meaningful outcomes.

Q. Any final words you would like to share.

Having spent a long time at the IBS Center for Climate Physics, I have developed a deep affection for the Center. It has been the foundation that enabled me and many other researchers to gain diverse experiences and achieve meaningful results. I hope that the research environment at our Center will continue to develop in a more long-term and stable manner.